Bermuda Weather Service Forecast Discussion

For Friday, May 20, 2022  08:00 UTC

FORECASTER - Kimberley Zuill 

NOWCAST: Today through Tonight
Lingering low cloud around 1100ft thickened at times to give a cloud 
ceiling in a few observations. AWOS winds around the Island indicated 
a generally SW flow about 8-10 knots. We remain on the western side 
of a rather broad ridge extending from a high pressure center to 
our ESE.  RADAR remains echo free and water Vapour imagery shows 
a shortwave upper-level ridge over the region with a shortwave upper 
trough passing by to the NW and a front slowly organizing on the 
US East coast. The suggestion of more cloud is featured in the local 
forecast due to the possibility of Morganís cloud developing in the 
moist light to moderate southwest flow. Cloud tops should be shallow 
due to the lack of moisture aloft, though the addition of moisture 
from the tail end of the trough to the north could add/stack on top 
of the shallow Morganís cloud to create a more substantial cloud 
streaming off the Island. Signs of development should be seen mid-morning 
and perpetuate until the direction changed or daytime heating eases. 
Latest OPC analysis has seas near 3-4ft which has also initialized 
well with the global models. Expect seas to remain in a mostly slight 
state.
WARNINGS: None.

AVIATION: RWY30 SW (occasionally WSW) 8-12 knots increasing 10-15 
kts at times. VFR become MVFR conditions at times with low cloud 
ceilings at times and generation of Morganís Cloud at times, building 
to the N through NE of TXKF when winds are steady. No other aviation 
hazards are anticipated.  For more information visit: http://weather.bm/aviation/

SHORT TERM FORECAST: Saturday through Sunday
A weak trough brings a few early showers on Saturday and causes 
winds to veer to the north, possibly even NE for a time overnight, 
but due to the light nature and the close proximity of the diffuse 
ridge, winds most likely will be variable in direction for a chunk 
of Saturday. In the upper levels, we are between an amplifying ridge 
to our west and a sharpening trough to our east which is transitioning 
to create a cut off low to our SE. This causes support to our distant 
NE of the continued development of a surface low, though it becomes 
isolated as it is blocked from the flow and begins to retrograde 
farther south. Ridging stretches out over the local region on the 
surface yet we still have weak or the ďtail endsĒ of troughs edging 
close enough to add support for showers at times. By Sunday light 
to moderate winds back to the NW as all global models indicate a 
confident placement of a high to our west. Slight seas persist over 
both days.  WARNINGS: None.

LONG TERM FORECAST: Monday through Tuesday
During the longer term period, global models suggest the weakening 
of the high to our west and the formation of multiple weak circulations 
in our region. Local wind fluctuations will be heavily dependent 
on the location of these weak features, but generally a gradual veering 
from NNW through NE is expected during this time, though it is highly 
probable this occurs within periods of variable winds as well. Overall, 
the weak features in the area and the interaction between trapped 
cloud/moisture as well as localized regions of convergence will conjure 
up clusters of convection in some areas and based on the time of 
day we may see some low cloud in overnight through early morning 
periods then building clusters of convection with daytime heating. 
Seas remain a slight state.  WARNINGS: None.