Bermuda Weather Service Forecast Discussion
For Friday, May 20, 2022
08:00 UTC
FORECASTER - Kimberley Zuill
NOWCAST: Today through Tonight
Lingering low cloud around 1100ft thickened at times to give a cloud
ceiling in a few observations. AWOS winds around the Island indicated
a generally SW flow about 8-10 knots. We remain on the western side
of a rather broad ridge extending from a high pressure center to
our ESE. RADAR remains echo free and water Vapour imagery shows
a shortwave upper-level ridge over the region with a shortwave upper
trough passing by to the NW and a front slowly organizing on the
US East coast. The suggestion of more cloud is featured in the local
forecast due to the possibility of Morgan’s cloud developing in the
moist light to moderate southwest flow. Cloud tops should be shallow
due to the lack of moisture aloft, though the addition of moisture
from the tail end of the trough to the north could add/stack on top
of the shallow Morgan’s cloud to create a more substantial cloud
streaming off the Island. Signs of development should be seen mid-morning
and perpetuate until the direction changed or daytime heating eases.
Latest OPC analysis has seas near 3-4ft which has also initialized
well with the global models. Expect seas to remain in a mostly slight
state.
WARNINGS: None.
AVIATION: RWY30 SW (occasionally WSW) 8-12 knots increasing 10-15
kts at times. VFR become MVFR conditions at times with low cloud
ceilings at times and generation of Morgan’s Cloud at times, building
to the N through NE of TXKF when winds are steady. No other aviation
hazards are anticipated. For more information visit: http://weather.bm/aviation/
SHORT TERM FORECAST: Saturday through Sunday
A weak trough brings a few early showers on Saturday and causes
winds to veer to the north, possibly even NE for a time overnight,
but due to the light nature and the close proximity of the diffuse
ridge, winds most likely will be variable in direction for a chunk
of Saturday. In the upper levels, we are between an amplifying ridge
to our west and a sharpening trough to our east which is transitioning
to create a cut off low to our SE. This causes support to our distant
NE of the continued development of a surface low, though it becomes
isolated as it is blocked from the flow and begins to retrograde
farther south. Ridging stretches out over the local region on the
surface yet we still have weak or the “tail ends” of troughs edging
close enough to add support for showers at times. By Sunday light
to moderate winds back to the NW as all global models indicate a
confident placement of a high to our west. Slight seas persist over
both days. WARNINGS: None.
LONG TERM FORECAST: Monday through Tuesday
During the longer term period, global models suggest the weakening
of the high to our west and the formation of multiple weak circulations
in our region. Local wind fluctuations will be heavily dependent
on the location of these weak features, but generally a gradual veering
from NNW through NE is expected during this time, though it is highly
probable this occurs within periods of variable winds as well. Overall,
the weak features in the area and the interaction between trapped
cloud/moisture as well as localized regions of convergence will conjure
up clusters of convection in some areas and based on the time of
day we may see some low cloud in overnight through early morning
periods then building clusters of convection with daytime heating.
Seas remain a slight state. WARNINGS: None.