Bermuda Weather Service Forecast Discussion

For Monday, February 27, 2017  21:00 UTC

FORECASTER - Michelle Pitcher 

FORECAST DISCUSSION	Michelle Pitcher	Monday, February 27, 2017
NOWCAST (Monday)
A few to scattered amount of clouds are expected to remain in the 
area as a center of high pressure begins to move to the north.  Winds 
have gradually decreased through this morning and afternoon and will 
likely be closer to 8-12 knots by evening instead of the 10-15 knots 
that the models are suggesting.  Winds have also veered east-northeasterly 
earlier than the models predicted.  Models maintain winds just north 
of east all night and have them in a 10-15 knot range.  I will mention 
that winds will occasionally decrease 8-12 knots through the night 
to include the lower winds that we have already observed today.  
Conditions are expected to remain dry through the night.  The latest 
NOAA OPC Wind/Wave Analysis has seas at six feet on our area.  Wave 
models suggest that they may fall to five feet later tonight.  No 
watches or warnings are valid at this time.
SHORT TERM (Tuesday & Wednesday)
An upper short wave exits the US East Coast Tuesday morning and 
passes over Bermuda by Tuesday evening.  Upper levels then become 
anti-cyclonic as an upper ridge builds.  Surface conditions continue 
to be mainly settled and dry as a center of high pressure passes 
to the north.  Models are in good agreement that winds will be about 
10-15 knots and veer southeasterly Tuesday evening.  The high begins 
to move away to the northeast on Wednesday and winds continue to 
veer, becoming southerly by noon.  Winds also increase as a low pressure 
system centered to the distant northwest continues to deepen and 
move a cold front closer to the US East Coast.  Models have winds 
12-18 knots by noon and winds may further increase to 15-20 knots 
late Wednesday night.  Dry conditions are expected to continue to 
persist through Wednesday and seas are expected to remain 3-6 feet 
outside the reefs for both days.  A small craft warning may be needed 
for late Wednesday night if models continue to slowly increase the 
winds.  No other watches or warnings are anticipated for these days 
at this time.
LONG TERM (Thursday & Friday)
The upper ridge moves away to the southeast Thursday morning and 
then a very broad upper trough replaces it later Thursday through 
Friday.  A cold front exits the US East Coast early Thursday morning 
and slowly moves towards Bermuda.  Winds are expected to be about 
18-24 knots all day from the southwest.  The GFS model continues 
to be faster with the front than the other models.  Both the UK and 
GFS now have a few, pre-frontal showers arriving late Thursday night. 
 The GFS model pushes the front through Friday morning while the 
UK model, the slowest, pushes the front through early Friday evening. 
 Also the GFS has barely a quarter of an inch of accumulation with 
the front while the UK has almost an inch.  The forecast for Friday 
remains broad as models are not in good agreement yet.  Wave models 
are in better agreement and seas gradually increase through Thursday, 
becoming moderate to rough Friday morning.  A small craft warning 
will be needed for all of Thursday and for some or all of Friday. 
 No other watches or warnings are anticipated for these days at this