Bermuda Weather Service Forecast Discussion
For Tuesday, March 28, 2017
FORECASTER - Michelle Pitcher
FORECAST DISCUSSION Michelle Pitcher Tuesday, March 28, 2017
Clouds will continue to thin throughout the day as the low pressure
system to our south continues to pass. Infra-red satellite already
has Bermuda out of the thickest clouds associated with the low.
Radar indicates that isolated light showers are entering the southeastern
through southern marine area. A few of them are expected to impact
the island at times throughout the day. Precipitation accumulation
for today is expected to be only a trace with models remaining in
good agreement on that for the past few runs. Winds are no longer
expected to reach 20 knots but seas will be close to or at nine feet
outside the reef; therefore the small craft warning remains valid
through today. Winds are expected to back to the northeast this
evening as the low passes to our southeast. Winds then continue
to back towards the north late tonight as the low continues to move
away to the east. Models are in good agreement with each other as
well as with current conditions. A small craft warning is valid
for today through Wednesday afternoon.
SHORT TERM (Wednesday & Thursday)
An upper trough passes over the area during the day on Wednesday.
Weak upper ridging then builds Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.
An upper short wave passes Thursday afternoon and evening. The
low pressure system is expected to move away from the area to the
east starting Wednesday morning. This allows a narrow ridge to briefly
build and bring slightly more settled conditions to Bermuda. Models
have winds mainly 12-18 knots starting northerly Wednesday morning,
backing throughout the day, becoming west-northwesterly late night.
Winds are expected to increase to 15-20 knots late Wednesday night;
just ahead of a weak cold front. The front brings a couple of showers
on Thursday morning (accumulation less than 0.05”) and winds will
be 18-24 knots for most of Thursday. A narrow ridge from the northwest
begins to build over the area later Thursday afternoon and winds
will decrease to 12-18 knots overnight as the ridging strengthens.
Models are in good agreement with each other on conditions for these
days. A small craft warning is valid today through Wednesday afternoon,
mainly due to seas reaching nine feet in the marine area. Another
small craft warning will be needed for late Wednesday night through
Thursday evening due to strong winds. No other watches or warnings
are anticipated for these days at this time.
LONG TERM (Friday & Saturday)
Broad upper ridging crosses over the area Friday morning through
Saturday afternoon. A narrow upper trough then arrives Saturday
evening and will likely pass early Sunday morning. Friday is expected
to have plenty of sunshine and be very settled as the ridge continues
to cross over. Winds will be light and variable by evening and then
settle southerly early Saturday morning. Winds rapidly increase
on Saturday, becoming 18-24 knots in the evening, as another cold
front approaches the area. There will likely be a couple of late
night showers on Saturday as the front draws near. Models are in
good agreement on conditions for these days. A small craft warning
may be needed at times Friday through Saturday afternoon due to seas
reaching nine feet. A small craft warning will be needed for Saturday
evening through the overnight due to the strong winds. No other
watches or warnings are anticipated for these days at this time.