Bermuda Weather Service Forecast Discussion

For Tuesday, March 28, 2017  07:00 UTC

FORECASTER - Michelle Pitcher 

FORECAST DISCUSSION	Michelle Pitcher	Tuesday, March 28, 2017
NOWCAST (Tuesday)
Clouds will continue to thin throughout the day as the low pressure 
system to our south continues to pass.  Infra-red satellite already 
has Bermuda out of the thickest clouds associated with the low.  
Radar indicates that isolated light showers are entering the southeastern 
through southern marine area.  A few of them are expected to impact 
the island at times throughout the day.  Precipitation accumulation 
for today is expected to be only a trace with models remaining in 
good agreement on that for the past few runs.  Winds are no longer 
expected to reach 20 knots but seas will be close to or at nine feet 
outside the reef; therefore the small craft warning remains valid 
through today.  Winds are expected to back to the northeast this 
evening as the low passes to our southeast.  Winds then continue 
to back towards the north late tonight as the low continues to move 
away to the east.  Models are in good agreement with each other as 
well as with current conditions.  A small craft warning is valid 
for today through Wednesday afternoon.
SHORT TERM (Wednesday & Thursday)
An upper trough passes over the area during the day on Wednesday. 
 Weak upper ridging then builds Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. 
 An upper short wave passes Thursday afternoon and evening.  The 
low pressure system is expected to move away from the area to the 
east starting Wednesday morning.  This allows a narrow ridge to briefly 
build and bring slightly more settled conditions to Bermuda.  Models 
have winds mainly 12-18 knots starting northerly Wednesday morning, 
backing throughout the day, becoming west-northwesterly late night. 
 Winds are expected to increase to 15-20 knots late Wednesday night; 
just ahead of a weak cold front.  The front brings a couple of showers 
on Thursday morning (accumulation less than 0.05) and winds will 
be 18-24 knots for most of Thursday.  A narrow ridge from the northwest 
begins to build over the area later Thursday afternoon and winds 
will decrease to 12-18 knots overnight as the ridging strengthens. 
 Models are in good agreement with each other on conditions for these 
days.  A small craft warning is valid today through Wednesday afternoon, 
mainly due to seas reaching nine feet in the marine area.  Another 
small craft warning will be needed for late Wednesday night through 
Thursday evening due to strong winds.  No other watches or warnings 
are anticipated for these days at this time. 
LONG TERM (Friday & Saturday)
Broad upper ridging crosses over the area Friday morning through 
Saturday afternoon.  A narrow upper trough then arrives Saturday 
evening and will likely pass early Sunday morning.  Friday is expected 
to have plenty of sunshine and be very settled as the ridge continues 
to cross over.  Winds will be light and variable by evening and then 
settle southerly early Saturday morning.  Winds rapidly increase 
on Saturday, becoming 18-24 knots in the evening, as another cold 
front approaches the area.  There will likely be a couple of late 
night showers on Saturday as the front draws near.  Models are in 
good agreement on conditions for these days.  A small craft warning 
may be needed at times Friday through Saturday afternoon due to seas 
reaching nine feet.  A small craft warning will be needed for Saturday 
evening through the overnight due to the strong winds.  No other 
watches or warnings are anticipated for these days at this time.