Bermuda Weather Service Forecast Discussion

For Thursday, February 22, 2018  09:00 UTC

FORECASTER - Ken Smith 

Bermuda Weather Service Forecast Discussion
For AM Thursday, 22 February 2018
Forecaster:  KS

NOWCAST (Today)
Satellite imagery shows an area of low cloud cover developing around 
Bermuda and our current sky condition has gone from few to broken. 
 RADAR is clear all quadrants.  Winds are light and variable to occasionally 
calm.  The latest north Atlantic surface analysis from the Ocean 
Prediction Center shows seas in our area still about 6 feet which 
is slightly higher than indicated by the local wave model.

UKMO and GFS are in good agreement throughout the forecast period. 
 High pressure now centered near to our east will move across Bermuda 
to our west this morning, then slowly drift further west through 
today and tonight.  The developing cloud cover now over Bermuda is 
expected to partially dissipate through the morning providing fair 
to occasionally fine conditions today.  Cloud cover is then expected 
to increase again tonight though conditions will remain dry throughout. 
 Light and variable winds will settle northwesterly in the afternoon, 
then increase slightly becoming light to moderate overnight.  Slight 
to moderate seas will gradually fall smooth to slight with decaying 
northerly swells.

There are no watches or warnings at this time and none are expected 
through tonight.

SHORT TERM FORECAST (Friday & Saturday)
High pressure to our west on Friday will be quasi-stationary and 
weaken slightly while maintaining fair weather for Bermuda.  The 
high will then slowly drift to our southwest by Saturday night, continuing 
to maintain fair weather for Bermuda.  Light to moderate northwesterly 
winds will persist on Friday and Saturday.  Smooth to slight seas 
Friday will rise smooth to moderate with building northerly swells 
Saturday morning.

No watches or warnings are expected for Friday or Saturday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Sunday & Monday)
High pressure will remain to our southwest on Sunday, then move 
to our south Monday morning.  Fair to fine weather is expected to 
persist throughout Sunday and Monday which is a change from previous 
model runs.  Light to moderate west-northwesterly winds on Sunday 
will gradually increase west-southwesterly moderate to strong on 
Monday.  Smooth to slight seas with decaying northerly swells on 
Sunday will rise slight to moderate again later Monday in response 
to increasing winds.

No watches or warnings are expected for Sunday.
A Small Craft Warning is expected beginning Monday evening through 
Monday night.