Bermuda Weather Service Forecast Discussion

For Friday, May 26, 2017  19:00 UTC

FORECASTER - Ken Smith 

Bermuda Weather Service Forecast Discussion
For PM Friday, 26 May 2017
Forecaster:  KS

NOWCAST (Tonight)
Satellite imagery shows a broad frontal zone across the region oriented 
northeast to southwest.  This front has been considerably weaker 
through the day than previously expected, however, more recent imagery 
indicates moderate convection throughout and there are still spherics 
returns further southwest along the front.  Our current sky condition 
is overcast and winds are strong occasionally moderate southwesterly. 
 The latest north Atlantic surface analysis from the Ocean Prediction 
Center shows seas in our area just under 9 feet which is close to 
the local wave model.

UKMO and GFS are in generally good agreement throughout the period. 
 Both models still indicate showers this evening with the frontal 
passage, and stability indices remain favourable for possible thunder. 
 Strong southwesterly winds with occasional gale force gusts this 
evening will veer and ease moderate to strong west-southwest later 
this evening, and then moderate westerly overnight.  Moderate to 
rough seas this evening will fall slight to moderate tonight soon 
after the winds ease.

A Small Craft Warning remains in effect through this evening.
A Thunderstorm Advisory remains in effect through this evening.

SHORT TERM FORECAST (Saturday & Sunday)
The cold front will move away to our southeast early Saturday morning 
and weak ridging will set up over Bermuda.  Mostly cloudy skies Saturday 
morning will gradually clear providing fair weather both Saturday 
and Sunday.  The remnants of the cold front will dissipate on Sunday 
and the Bermuda-Azores high centered well off to our east will begin 
to extend a ridge westward to our south.  Light to moderate westerly 
winds Saturday will begin to back west-southwest late Saturday night, 
then back southwesterly early Sunday.  Seas will remain slight to 
moderate throughout the weekend while slowly falling.

No watches or warnings are expected Saturday or Sunday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Monday & Tuesday)
The ridge of high pressure to our south will gradually extend to 
Florida.  This will maintain fair weather for both Monday and Tuesday, 
along with light to moderate southwesterly winds and smooth to slight 
seas.

No watches or warnings are expected Monday or Tuesday.