Bermuda Weather Service Forecast Discussion

For Friday, April 19, 2019  18:00 UTC

FORECASTER - Gary Hall 

NOWCAST (Friday evening through Friday night):
Spring time high pressure ridging is firmly in place. Surface pressure 
is hovering near 1026MB and is expected to stay strong through tonight, 
thus keeping Bermuda mainly sunny with a moderate southeasterly breeze 
that is expected to slightly increase tonight as a front to the west 
“squeezes” up against the high. Satellite shows a band of stratocumulus 
to the west and moving west, while little cloud cover is noted upstream 
to the east-southeast. The latest sounding confirms the dry atmosphere 
with a weak marine inversion and humidity levels 70% or below, though 
likely to increase overnight. A Small Craft Warning has been issued 
and will go in effect this evening, otherwise no hazardous weather 
to report on.

AVIATION: VFR no hazards. TXKF wind favors runway 12 through the 
period, while mainly in the 12-18 knot range. For current airfield 
information please visit: http://www.weather.bm/Aviation


SHORT TERM FORECAST (Saturday-Sunday): 
500MB heights continue to build to near 590DM over the weekend. 
The high will be longitudinal and strong though the front to the 
west continues to try and dent it, it will likely not succeed other 
than a slight increase in southeasterly wind in the 20 knot range, 
constituting a continuation of the Small Craft Warning. The seas 
may temporarily build rough on Sunday, but as a whole expect moderate 
seas with good visibility under this stable regime. MOS has a gradual 
increase in temperatures on both days with humidity also rising though 
still far from oppressive. Model agreement remains quite good through 
this period thus confidence going forward is high. 

LONG TERM FORECAST: (Monday-Tuesday):
The high is expected to mostly win out through this period as it 
thwarts off the front to the west. Previously the ECMWF was bringing 
the front through, but it has backed off while the UKMO and GFS are 
inching it ever so closer late in this period. The latest 12Z model 
run is attempting to push the front further east and over Bermuda 
late Tuesday night and into Wednesday, albeit quite weak as it does. 
This will be highlighted with upcoming discussions as any impacts 
are likely to be towards early Wednesday and beyond.  We are likely 
to see an increase in cloud cover, especially towards Tuesday, but 
all indications point to Bermuda staying mostly dry as the ridge 
has just enough strength to keep us stable through much of this period. 
With the front collapsing the wind is also expected to diminish as 
we go from moderate to strong southeasterly wind early Monday to 
light northeasterly wind on Tuesday. Temperatures will continue to 
hover around 73F/23C while the seas remain in the moderate range, 
and tend to abate as well.