Bermuda Weather Service Forecast Discussion

For Monday, June 01, 2020  20:00 UTC

FORECASTER - Kimberley Zuill 

NOWCAST: This evening through Tonight:
Today’s front has now cleared to the east and observations have 
recorded the uptick of both pressure and winds. Crescent offshore 
sensor is reading NNW wind 22- 26 knots and  higher winds are seen 
in elevated locations such as Fort George. Satellite imagery coupled 
with RADAR indicate another couple of organized lines of cloud producing 
light showers aligning in the cold airmass, which may bring through 
our marine area in the next couple of hours. The upper level trough 
is transitioning to our east and beyond this evening conditions will 
only become more settled as high pressure moves in from the west 
and subsidence begins to snuff out any residual evidence of the unsettled 
weather. There is indications in the GFS model of some cloud being 
trapped under the NE quadrant of the advancing high, and this may 
lead to a return of cloudy skies towards the pre-dawn hours later 
tonight.  

OPC has charted seas around Bermuda just over 6ft with the 9ft contour 
very close to our northwest marine area, which aligns well with the 
UK wave model and BRWFS indicating the building seas this evening 
and tonight becoming 7-10ft. 

Warnings: Small craft warning remains in effect for this evening 
and tonight. No other watches or warnings are expected.

Aviation: MVFR due to cloud bases, becoming IFR overnight. NNW wind 
will remain strong but the possibility of recording 25 gusting near 
35 knots on the airfield is very low and is eliminated later tonight. 
 
For more information please see www.weather.bm/aviation 


Short Term: Tuesday-Wednesday: 
NNW winds gradually decrease through the day and become light and 
variable by Tuesday evening as the centre of a high pressure, moving 
in quickly from the west, transitions through our region. It will 
remain to be seen how much cloud is trapped, if any, under the inversion, 
but currently most model data suggest a rapid clearing, but as mentioned 
in the nowcast the GFS is the outlier suggesting lingering trapped 
cloud to start with on Tuesday morning and this model usually handles 
this variable reasonably well and is the reason for a mix of sun 
and cloud forecast for Tuesday rather than mostly sunny. From Wednesday 
onward for the remainder of the week the ridge will stretch along 
our latitude, skewing down towards Florida and this offers strong 
subsidence and light local winds with plenty of sunshine. A shortwave 
trough moving through the upper flow to our north and the surface 
reflection does generate a weak front, which remains to our distant 
north along with all shower activity. The ridge of high pressure 
over us keeps this feature out of our local area and the only effect 
may be a possible squeeze in the isobaric pattern thus increasing 
local SSW winds late Wednesday night however recent model runs have 
put more emphasis on the dominating ridge so only a slight wind increase 
is forecast.

The UK wave model indicates seas remain high at 6-9ft for the morning 
on Tuesday, however rapidly decrease with the advancing high pressure 
and may drop below small craft threshold mid-late morning, thus in 
future forecasts more finite details of timing may be added to the 
cessation of the small craft warning time, maybe after confirmation 
from any reports RCC Bermuda Maritime Ops can give in the morning. 


Warnings: Small craft warning through Tuesday morning, though this 
would be marginal at best and probably only valid for early Tuesday 
morning. 


Long Term: Thursday-Friday:
The long range is marked by a massive area of high pressure extending 
across most of the Atlantic. Apart from this, the ridge remains solidly 
over us and causing plenty of sunshine and light winds that become 
south with the reorientation of the ridge just to our north. The 
UK wave model continues the abating trend, however seas remain moderate 
during the long range. 

Warnings: none expected. 

Tropical Update: 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite imagery and radar observations from Mexico show that 
the area of disturbed weather centered near the west coast of the 

Yucatan peninsula is gradually becoming better organized.  The 
disturbance will move west-northwestward over the Bay of Campeche 

later this afternoon where environmental conditions are expected 

to be conducive to support development, and a tropical depression 

or storm is likely to form tonight or Tuesday.  The system is then 

forecast to drift westward or west-southwestward over the southern 

Bay of Campeche through the middle of the week.  Interests 
along the coast of the Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress 

of this disturbance as tropical storm watches or warnings could 
be 
required for a portion of this area later today or tonight. 
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall is likely 

to continue over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El 
Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during the next few days. 

For additional information on the rainfall threat, see products 

from your national meteorological service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown