Bermuda Weather Service Forecast Discussion

For Monday, August 08, 2022  08:00 UTC

FORECASTER - Kimberley Zuill 

Nowcast: Today through Tonight
High pressure dominates our region through most of the atmosphere, 
though slightly skewed due to upper level lows to our SE through 
NE. Currently, observations as well as ASCAT confirms the centre 
of the surface high still to our NE, which is maintaining our light 
SE flow. The ridge stretches over us and offers continued suppression 
of most shower activity in the region… much to the frustration of 
locals desperately desiring rain. Unfortunately, this extended dry 
spell will continue for most of this week as the pattern remains 
fairly stagnant. Satellite imagery and RADAR are pretty clear apart 
from a few isolated showers moving into the eastern marine area. 
As with many days this week, these will most likely dissipate with 
sunrise to give just lingering clusters of cumulus clouds. By tonight, 
the ridge axis may waft over us and cause winds to become variable 
at times. OPC currently has 3ft for our offshore waters, which aligns 
well with global wave models.     WARNINGS: None.

Aviation: RWY12 with 5 knots SE wind. VFR conditions with no aviation 
hazards expected for the period. For more information please see 
www.weather.bm/aviation  

Short-Term: Tuesday through Wednesday
The upper lows to the SE and NE are expected to merge and create 
an elongated trough which attempts to break down the upper ridge, 
if not just shift it away to the NW by Tuesday. The models all have 
this occurring, however at slightly different locations. Regardless, 
our weather will be driven by the surface, where high pressure remains 
nearly overhead causing light and variable winds that may go calm 
at times as well as settled weather with mainly sunny skies. A rogue 
shower cannot be ruled out, as well as home/island generated showers 
– should the wind become a steady direction for a few hours. This 
will have to be a nowcast situation though. Temperatures will remain 
similar to recent days and seas become slight to calm in isolated 
locations. WARNINGS: None expected.

Long term: Thursday through Friday
High pressure continues to dominate and in the upper levels the 
high will shift from our NW to our N. On the surface a few troughs 
encroach from the south on Thursday, but the ridge holds firm keeping 
most of the moisture at bay. Strong sunshine and bright daytime skies 
are expected to continue into the long term period. With the light 
and variable regime, the potential for island-generated cloud and 
showers continues. During Friday, the ridge seems to break down slightly 
with the advancement of a more organized, though rather broad, inverted 
trough approaching from the southeast. Winds may finally snap out 
of their variable trend and be dictated by the strength of the flow 
around this trough. It may take a while, but increased moisture may 
bring cloudy periods later along with the chance of overnight showers. 

Seas remain slight.  WARNINGS: None

TROPICAL:  Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) 

courtesy of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for more details 

via https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/