Forecast Discussion	Michelle Pitcher	19 January 2026
NOWCAST (Today – Tonight)
The western side of an upper omega block is overhead today, and 
the forward side of the upper trough is supporting the surface low 
pressure centre that is bringing a cold front through this evening. 
Moderate to strong winds continue into most of the afternoon and 
a few showers are expected to arrive around noon.  The actual front 
will draw near this evening, allowing winds to decrease while precipitation 
increases. Models stall the front in our general area, but the timing 
of the actual wind veer remains uncertain. It could be late this 
evening or near dawn tomorrow. Models are also hinting at brief light 
winds during the actual wind veer and at a chance of isolated thunderstorms 
within the frontal boundary. Moderate seas will begin to increase 
towards 9’ outside the reefs late tonight. A small craft warning 
is valid for this morning through this afternoon. There is a chance 
that a thunderstorm advisory will be needed for late tonight. No 
other watches, warnings, or advisories are anticipated at this time.
AVIATION: The 06Z TAF has VRF conditions with a PROB40 TEMPO of 
MVFR conditions throughout the entire TAF period. The passage of 
a cold front also brings a PROB30 TEMPO of VFR conditions especially 
towards the end of the TAF period. For more information please visit 
www.weather.bm/aviation.
SHORT TERM (Tuesday – Wednesday)
The upper level omega block begins to break down Tuesday and Wednesday 
with the upper trough centred to our west becoming broad and dominant. 
The forward side of the now relaxed trough still persist overhead. 
On the surface light rain is expected to start around dawn on Tuesday, 
just behind the cold front, then decreases towards noon. There is 
a chance that isolated thunderstorms will remain in the marine area 
early Tuesday morning. Models have light to moderate winds and dry 
conditions Tuesday afternoon, then winds increase to 12-18 knots 
Tuesday night as high pressure start to pass to the north. A few 
showers and periods of light rain will return Tuesday night as the 
cold front, now stalled to the near south, moves north just into 
our area. Models hint at winds reaching 20 knots at times on Wednesday, 
but are not in good enough agreement on the timing for me to confidently 
put them in the forecast yet. Wednesday is expected to have a few 
light showers or even possibly periods of light rain, depending on 
how much moisture continues to stream into our area from what is 
left of Monday’s cold front. I have left the forecast a bit broad 
as models are not in good agreement on how much or what form the 
precipitation will take. Wave models have moderate seas outside the 
reefs for Tuesday (4-7’) and increase the slight to 5-8’ on Wednesday. 
There is a chance of a thunderstorm advisory needed for Tuesday morning. 
A small craft warning may be needed for parts of Wednesday. No other 
watches, warnings, or advisories are anticipated for these days at 
this time.
LONG TERM (Thursday – Friday)
A short wave begins to sharpen the broad upper trough centred to 
our west on Thursday. The short wave axis continues to move easterly, 
arriving to our near west Friday evening. Models show the trough 
relaxing as it passes and we remain on the forward side of the original 
broad trough on Saturday. Again, on the surface, models have strong 
winds at times on Thursday but I have maintained 12-18 knots as the 
timing of the strong winds is uncertain. Friday winds are equally 
unclear as another weak cold front is expected to pass later in the 
day. Thursday morning patchy rain passes south to north through the 
area as a low pressure system begins to develop off the southeaster 
US coast and move along the Gulf Stream. Thursday evening through 
Friday morning look to be dry. Showers arrive with the cold front 
Friday morning and then decrease towards evening. Wave models maintain 
moderate seas outside the reefs for both days. A small craft warning 
may be needed for parts of both days. No other watches, warnings 
or advisories are anticipated for these days at this time.