Bermuda Weather Service Forecast Discussion

For Saturday, June 14, 2025  08:00 UTC

FORECASTER - Anton Wiltshire 

NOWCAST: Today through Tonight 
The night was fine and dry as high pressure continues to stretch 
over the area.  Ridging is also dominant in the upper levels as a 
short wave trough to the east slides further away from the Island 
as seen on water vapour imagery.  Radar imagery remains mostly echo 
free for the most part though weak echoes swirl around the Island. 
 Looking ahead, with winds fluctuating between SSW and SW into this 
afternoon there is the possibility for Morgan’s Cloud to develop 
which may produce a shower or two across the area.  Winds were originally 
light WNW-NW to start the night but became variable for a time then 
settled SSW-SW late night. Winds are forecast to gradually increase 
today to become light to moderate through the afternoon then moderate 
overnight.  The latest OPC wind/wave analysis shows offshore seas 
at <1m/~2-3ft which is agrees with model initialization and seas 
remain smooth to slight.    
Warnings: No watches or warnings anticipated.  

AVIATION: VFR conditions are expected to dominate the latest TAF 
with winds 200-240 DEG 5-8kt increasing to 8-12kt this afternoon 
then 10-15kt overnight.  There is a PROB30 chance for MVFR conditions 
with showers during the afternoon.  No significant aviation hazard 
expected tonight. For current airfield information please visit: 
http://www.weather.bm/Aviation  

SHORT TERM FORECAST: Sunday through Monday (National Heroes Day) 

On Sunday, high pressure fades across the area, dropping to near 
1020mb as unstable weather to the north nudges closer to BDA with 
prefrontal convergence possibly introducing a couple showers on Sunday 
with further showers probable on Monday as the boundary to the north 
moves overhead.  Upper ridging to the west presses into the area 
on Sunday but is interrupted by weak short wave troughing that passes 
nearby overnight.  On Sunday, SW winds 10-15kts veer WSW during the 
morning then veering W on Monday and WNW for a time towards evening 
then easing 8-12kts overnight.  Smooth to slight seas on Sunday build 
slight to moderate on Monday.     
WARNINGS: No watches or warnings anticipated.          

LONG TERM FORECAST: Tuesday through Wednesday
The long term remains mostly dry and settled as ridging presses 
in from the south but areas of convergence possibly brings shower 
or two mainly early Tuesday morning.  Upper ridging persist from 
Tuesday into Wednesday although troughing develops to the south of 
the Island as a cut off low forms.  W winds at 8-12kt on Tuesday 
back WSW overnight then increase to 10-15kt at times on Wednesday 
while occasionally veering W.   Seas remain in a smooth to slight 
state.      
WARNINGS: No watches or warnings expected.   

TROPICAL UPDATE
Please see https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&basin=atlc&fdays=7 
for the latest outlook from the NHC.