NOWCAST: Today through Tonight 
Cloudy skies persisted through the night while RADAR indicated disorganized 
showers clustered randomly from our distant SW through N. In these 
early morning hours a few showers have popped up on the edge of our 
marine area and while the trend has been that showers dissipate as 
they encounter the edge of the ridge, with over 24 hrs of ESE-SE 
moist moderate breeze we may see the showers holding and possibly 
dampening at least western parts of the Island. However, as the sun 
rises this may counter the showers and burn off some of the cloud. 
Water vapour imagery shows weak upper ridging transitioning to exit 
to our east while IR shows the clusters of convection to the distant 
west with some isolated sferic activity.  ASCAT pass shows weak ridging 
to the northeast with SE moderate winds moving over our local region. 
 Expect variable cloud with showers passing through our area, however 
the majority of shower activity is modelled to remain offshore and 
skirt NW to N of the Island… still a couple of showers may dampen 
isolated parts of the Island. As we are below average for rainfall, 
any showers that reach the Island would be welcome by most locals, 
though the chance of any being “tank rain” is low! The latest OPC 
wind/wave analysis shows offshore seas at 3-5ft which agrees with 
model initialization and seas remain in a mainly slight state.   
  
Warnings: No watches or warnings anticipated.  

AVIATION: VFR conditions RWY12 as winds 140-180 DEG 10-15kt, increasing 
to 12-18kt late tonight. There is a PROB30 for MVFR due to showers 
approaching the area from the W thru SW. For current airfield information 
please visit: http://www.weather.bm/Aviation  

SHORT TERM FORECAST: Friday through Saturday
Troughing and areas of convergence, though weak, maintain clusters 
of showery weather through most of the short term. There is a large 
spread within the NWP suite with QPF values ranging from 2mm to above 
25mm over the 2-day period.  Troughing to the west slowly nudges 
towards BDA with cyclonic flow likely to arrive into Friday.  Moderate 
S winds veer SW by Friday afternoon.  Smooth to slight seas increase 
to slight to moderate.  
WARNINGS: No watches or warnings expected.   

LONG TERM FORECAST: Sunday through Monday 
Models suggest a brief reprieve during most of Sunday with brighter 
skies, yet moderate SW winds strengthen 16-22 knots at times for 
the rest of the long term period as troughing attempts to become 
more organized just to our near NW through N. This induces the development 
of a few showers late Sunday into Monday that encroach from the NW, 
or at least loom on the horizon, depending on which model is being 
referenced.  The GFS/EURO develop the boundary as it sags over us, 
while the UKMO suggests a rather fragmented & mostly dry region. 
Upper troughing stalls to our east and distant north which is the 
driving support for the development of that surface boundary near 
us.  However, upper ridging nudges in over us and battles to offer 
more stability to the region. Slight to moderate seas become mostly 
moderate on Sunday.  
WARNINGS: A small craft warning will be required on Sunday and possibly 
early Monday for occasionally strong winds.