Bermuda Weather Service Forecast Discussion

For Monday, July 22, 2024  21:00 UTC

FORECASTER - Alex Young 

NOWCAST: (This evening and tonight)
The day was generally sunny despite a noticeable cloudy spell towards 
midday as a weak trough moved through the island. The trough had 
accompanying showers which generally dissipated as they approached 
the island. Latest satellite imagery shows mostly clear to partly 
cloudy skies with very little cloud upstream and some weak Morganís 
cloud. Latest radar imagery shows very weak echoes across the area 
possibly attributed to some virga. Latest surface analysis high pressure 
still dominant across much of the North Atlantic Ocean with a sagging 
frontal boundary to the distant north. Water Vapour imagery shows 
an upper anticyclone to the northeast and upper lows to the southwest 
and southeast. This has initialized well with the global models and 
there is high confidence in the synoptic pattern. There is good consensus 
between the global models that weak anticyclonic to near-zonal flow 
persists overnight as Bermuda remains under the influence of the 
weak upper anticyclone. Global models also suggest that high pressure 
remains dominant with dry weather continuing to prevail with perhaps 
the very low chance of a late night shower. Winds at our AWOS stations 
and the airport began southwesterly and veered west-southwesterly 
to west-northwesterly around midday as the weak trough passed. While 
global models did not capture this, it is not unprecedented for models 
to miss very weak features. Winds then back southerly to south-southwesterly 
during the afternoon whilst remaining near 5-10 knots. Currently 
winds have changed little and have initialized well with the global 
models. Expect winds to back more southerly to south-southeasterly 
overnight with little change in intensity. In addition, winds may 
vary in direction at times. Latest OPC analysis has seas near 2-3ft 
which has also initialized well with the global models. Expect smooth 
to slight seas to persist overnight.

Warning Strategy: No watches or warnings are in effect for this 
evening.

AVIATION:
Runway 30 is the current active runway but it switch to Runway 12 
is possible as the wind backs more southerly overnight while remaining 
around 5-10 knots. VFR conditions and no aviation hazards are anticipated. 
 For more information visit: http://weather.bm/aviation/


SHORT TERM FORECAST (Tuesday through Wednesday)
An upper anticyclone hangs around north of the area with near zonal 
winds holding over Bermuda as upper lows meander to our southwest 
and southeast respectively. At the surface, high pressure continues 
to be dominant across the area with mostly dry and sunny weather 
s with local surface pressure rising above 1028mb on Wednesday. However, 
weak areas of convergence may bring a shower or two especially during 
the late night. Maximum temperatures are expected to climb to 30-31C/86-87F. 
Light southerly winds on Tuesday back east-southeasterly into Wednesday, 
likely becoming variably light at times. Winds then veer southeasterly 
overnight Wednesday. Seas remain in a mostly slight state.

Warning Strategy: No watches or warnings are anticipated for the 
short-term period.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Thursday through Friday)
The flow aloft is anticyclonic with ridging dominating in the upper 
levels though the upper low continue to meander to the southwest 
and southeast respectively. At the surface, convergence along the 
western flank of the surface high may introduce cloudy spells on 
Thursday morning with a shower or two around. Friday sees mostly 
fine conditions holding as high pressure continues to linger though 
models hint at a few overnight showers. Southeast winds of 4-8kt 
shift direction at times then then veer southerly towards evening 
on Thursday. Winds then remain near southerly on Friday and perhaps 
veer more south-southwesterly. Seas should remain mostly slight.

Warning Strategy: No watches or warnings are anticipated for the 
long-term period.

TROPICAL:  Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) 
courtesy of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for more details 
via https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/