Bermuda Weather Service Forecast Discussion
For Wednesday, April 30, 2025
09:00 UTC
FORECASTER - James Dodgson
NOWCAST (Today/Tonight)
Overnight saw conditions very much following the NWP and official
forecast, with both strong winds and locally rough seas falling below
warning threshold (as per AWOS, Ascat and NOAA OPC Sea Height analysis
data), allowing yesterday evening’s small craft warning to expire
in a timely manner. WV s now showing upper ridging spreading in from
the NW and this is supporting a ridge of high pressure at the sfc,
anchored WSW/ENE just to the NW of the Island. With a subsidence
inversion around 5000ft, some cold-air Sc cloud is trapped beneath
this and seen filtering across the local area. However, it is aligned
in thin ‘cloud streets’ allowing Bermuda to experience mostly clear
skies at times. With the clouds being relatively thin, thanks to
the inversion, radar remained clear of any reflectivity. Looking
ahead to today and tonight and the benign weather pattern is set
to continue with skies likely to become mostly sunny today. Moderate
NE winds are slated to ease light, while temperatures are expected
to recover a degree or two high than yesterday at 22C/low 70s F.
Moderate seas continue to abate, becoming slight to moderate. No
watches/warnings are anticipated.
AVIATION: VFR conditions dominate the latest 06Z TAF period with
mostly light NE winds (some backing towards end of period but not
TAFable). For current airfield information please visit: http://www.weather.bm/Aviation
SHORT TERM FORECAST (Thursday-Friday)
Broad upper ridging is very much the dominate influence in the short
range forecast period. This corresponds to high pressure ridging
remaining in charge at the sfc. Wind will be mostly light from the
N-NW, possible becoming variable at times. Seas will ease mostly
slight. As for weather, the only hiccup is a weak front that presses
in from the N on Thursday night, likely to linger into Friday morning
with some isolated shower activity. QPFs are generally small at no
more than 1-2mm or 1/10th of an inch. There is some discrepancy between
how the models handle this feature, but aside from a couple of showers
into Friday morning, it promises to be largely dry and sunny. With
a return of some modest WAA, temperatures will recover to near average
once again. No watches/warnings are expected.
LONG TERM FORECAST (Saturday-Sunday)
For the most part, upper ridging remains in control, with just a
hint of a break down from the W right at the end of the period. At
the sfc, high pressure ridging also remains in charge with more predominantly
dry and sunny weather and temperatures further recovering to a little
above average. Light winds are progged to increase light to moderate
from the SE for a time. On Sunday night the UK model continues to
be rather bullish with sending showers into the area from the E in
concert with inverted troughing. The rest of the NWP is not as aggressive
so a blended approach is taken for now, just introducing more cloud
and mostly isolated showers Sunday night. Seas may build a touch,
but still remain mainly slight. No watches/warnings are anticipated
at the present time.