NOWCAST: Today through Tonight 
Prefrontal convergence brought thickening clouds over the Island 
overnight with mostly light and vicinity showers at first then the 
cold front passed overhead a bit earlier than models had forecast 
to bring moderate rain. As the front exits further east this morning, 
winds ramp up with SW-WSW gales and storm force gusts developing 
from late morning into the afternoon then easing to be W-WNW strong 
and occasionally gusty for the remainder of the day. Later in the 
day, as low pressure to the north deepens, post frontal troughing 
brings more rain and showers for the overnight period. Water vapour 
imagery shows upper troughing moving off the eastern US thereby generating 
cyclonic flow across the area as models forecast the jet stream and 
tandem jet streak to pass overhead through much of the day. The latest 
OPC wind/wave analysis shows offshore seas 9-10ft which agrees with 
model initialization and seas build to ~20ft possibly 22ft by this 
afternoon then easing overnight for a short reprieve.     
Warnings: A small craft warning is in effect early this morning 
then a gale warning comes into effect from late morning to this afternoon 
which is then replaced with a small craft warning from late this 
afternoon through tonight. There is a slight chance a thunderstorm 
advisory may be required at short notice.         

AVIATION: VFR conditions are expected to dominate the latest TAF 
with winds 200-240 DEG 20-30kts increasing 220-260 DEG 30-40kts with 
gusts to 55kts, veering 270 DEG early afternoon and easing 20-30kts 
by evening. Winds then back 230-260 DEG 18-24kts overnight. There 
is a chance for MVFR/IFR conditions early this morning. Airfield 
warning #2 in effect for winds and gusts until 15Z, likely to be 
extended further. For current airfield information please visit: 
http://www.weather.bm/Aviation  

SHORT TERM FORECAST: Saturday through Sunday
Another deepening low to the north brings more squally conditions, 
blustery showers and gales by late afternoon with storm force gusts 
that linger into Sunday afternoon, easing later Sunday. As the low 
develops, some sunny periods become interrupted with occasional showers 
over the weekend. Cyclonic flow aloft on Saturday become nearly zonal 
Sunday morning though the flow becomes cyclonic at times to end the 
weekend.  A strong pulse of winds develop on Saturday as SW 18-24 
knots increase W 25-35 knots late afternoon with gusts to 45 knots 
then further increasing 35-45 knots towards evening with gusts to 
55 knots, veering WNW overnight. Gales linger into Sunday with WNW 
35-45 knots with early gusts to 55 knots, ease 25-35 knots by evening 
then 20-30 knots overnight. Rough to very rough seas on Saturday 
build high to very high during the night then decreasing very rough 
to high through Sunday afternoon.         
WARNINGS: A small craft warning is in effect to Saturday afternoon, 
superseded by a gale warning from late afternoon to Sunday afternoon 
then another small craft warning takes over from late Sunday afternoon 
through the night.  
  
LONG TERM FORECAST: Monday through Tuesday
Post frontal troughing brings a few showers across the area on Monday 
as low pressure to the distant northeast lifts further away and showers 
dissipate towards evening, for a time. However, high pressure to 
the southwest nudges closer to the Island into Tuesday and areas 
of convergence brings morning to afternoon isolated showers that 
clear east by overnight. The broad, lingering upper trough persist 
on Monday but as the axis moves out to the east overnight Bermuda 
then falls to the back of the trough where anticyclonic flow dominates 
on Tuesday. WNW winds at 20-30kts veer NW at times on Monday then 
ease to 16-22kts by evening, remaining moderate to strong on Tuesday 
and maybe even strengthening to strong at times then easing 12-18kts 
late night. Very rough to high seas on Monday gradually abate to 
become moderate to rough on Tuesday.        
WARNINGS: A small craft warning is likely to be extended through 
the entirety of the long term period.