NOWCAST (This Evening/Tonight)
Showers are now gathering in advance of an approaching front from 
the NW driven by broad upper troughing to the N. Moderate W’ly winds 
have now veered into the N and eased light in line with model expectations. 
Some deeper convection has been identified on the radar with the 
GOES GLM sensor picking up a sferic or two upstream. Looking ahead 
to this evening and tonight and the front is progged to settle into 
the area with extensive cloud cover and scattered showers gradually 
developing across the area. Given elevated instability indices (moister 
and more unstable vertical profiles), the chance of isolated thunder 
is possible and this is mentioned in the detailed forecasts. As the 
night wears on, winds are forecast to veer into the NE, perhaps increasing 
moderate at times with stronger gusts in and around any more significant 
showers. Mostly slight seas are progged to build moderate. At this 
stage, the main warning to consider will be a thunderstorm advisory.

AVIATION: VFR conditions are expected to deteriorate into the MVFR, 
possibly IFR category as showers develop across the area. Light NW 
winds are progged to gradually veer into the E and increase moderate 
through the latest 18Z TAF period. There is a small chance for deep 
convection and for this reason CB is coded up in the TAF. There is 
a possibility for an AF Warning for thunderstorms, more especially 
tomorrow. For current airfield information please visit:  http://www.weather.bm/Aviation 


SHORT TERM FORECAST (Wednesday-Thursday)
The upper pattern remains somewhat cyclonic as broad upper troughing 
remains in place towards the N. The pattern at the sfc is one of 
the frontal boundary stalling in the local area as a frontal wave 
develops towards the WSW and gradually migrates over BDA. Given models 
having slightly different interpretations of the frontal waves, this 
makes for a challenging forecast particularly with regards wind speed 
and direction. Nevertheless, the general theme is one of moderate 
ENE’ly winds gradually veering into the W on Thursday before becoming 
light and variable thereafter. Given the wave development, this is 
likely to send some dynamic rain (almost a pseudo warm front) into 
the area on Wednesday with possible heavier embedded showers, some 
of which could be thundery and accompanied by gusty winds. The wave 
is then set to draw some drier air into the region on Thursday, allowing 
the wet weather to ease, albeit with lingering cloudy skies. Seas 
will be slight to moderate and once again the main warning to watch 
will be a thunderstorm advisory.  

LONG TERM FORECAST (Friday-Saturday)
The upper trough axis finally pushed through the area during this 
period, allowing upper ridging to develop from the W. The main impact 
of this at the sfc is for fairly robust high pressure to nudge in 
from the NW and the lingering frontal boundary begins to exit S. 
Given quite a tight isobaric gradient developing with the associated 
pressure rise, there is a chance of moderate to strong ENE winds 
developing on Saturday and that detail has now been included in the 
forecast products. As for showers, these should gradually dissipate 
with cloud breaks developing allowing for a return of at least some 
sunny spells. Given the ENE flow, some CAA returns with dew points 
falling back to more comfortable levels once again. Seas will likely 
build moderate in the increase ENE flow. As for watches, warnings 
and advisories, a thunderstorm advisory may be required early Friday 
as the unstable air moves out, and a small craft warning may be needed 
later Saturday as the marginal super-geostrophic strong winds kick 
in.

TROPICAL UPDATE
TD9 has now developed in the SW Gulf of America but is currently 
not deemed to be a threat to BDA. Please see https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 
for the latest outlook from the NHC.