NOWCAST: (This evening and tonight)
Bermuda remains under the influence of the slowly evolving near-stationary 
frontal boundary to our near south. Weak anticyclonic upper flow 
is restricting southward motion of the upper trough to our distant 
north. Shortwave troughing to the distant west approaches the area 
overnight. The day began with continuous light rain and scattered 
low cloud ~1500ft occasionally becoming broken. MOS did pick up on 
rain and mist reducing visibility below 3000m for a time this afternoon. 
However, the GFS remains the outlier for precipitation accumulation, 
with QPFs totaling >40mm for today which was significantly overdone. 
Surface high pressure to the north maintains strong winds in a generally 
easterly direction. Gusts up to 35kts were observed at NMB and sustained 
winds of 30-35kts to the south of our marine area by RV Atlantic 
Explorer this morning. Winds slowly reduced throughout the day, settling 
near to or just below 20kts sustained, with only the slight chance 
of gusts up to 30kts. The frontal boundary continues to slowly evolve 
and meander to our near south, with several low centers developing 
along the boundary. The latest ASCAT analysis clearly shows a developing 
low-pressure center to our distant southwest and southeast. The 12Z 
skew-T and model data shows a very moist profile with plenty of layer 
cloud evident (and observed) with marginal instability overhead. 
Model indices show moderate instability to our near west to southeast, 
with any vigorous convective activity progged to stay to the south 
of the marine area, in association with the developing lows. The 
UK global model has verified well with current conditions with the 
GFS and EC remaining more aggressive with respect to winds and precipitation. 
Local atmospheric pressure remained mostly steady at 1015hPa. Rough 
seas decrease slightly but remain in the moderate to rough range 
overnight.
WATCHES, WARNINGS and ADVISORIES: Small Craft Warning valid throughout 
the period, AF Warning for surface winds and gusts cancelled at 18Z. 

AVIATION: VFR conditions expected with occasional MVFR/IFR conditions 
due to potential low ceilings and restricted visibility resulting 
from precipitation. RWY 12 active with steady strong winds ENE ~20kts. 
AF Warning for surface winds and gusts cancelled at 18Z.

SHORT TERM FORECAST: Monday through Tuesday
The influence of the upper high to our southeast wanes as shortwave 
upper troughing gradually amplifies and moves towards us on Monday, 
with a weak cut off low developing, which can be seen on current 
satellite WV imagery to our distant south. This will assist the development 
of shower activity during this period, with some positive vorticity 
advection associated. On Tuesday, the cut off low moves away to the 
distant southeast and allows near zonal flow to dominate, with upper 
ridging gradually building in overnight. Shower activity is expected 
to gradually reduce to mostly isolated and occasionally scattered 
during this time with marginal model QPFs <10mm anticipated. Some 
uncertainty remains for this period with the GFS and EC more aggressive 
with wind and precipitation values. Therefore, a blended approach 
has been maintained, slightly favoring the UK solution. An increasingly 
barotropic low developing off the coast of Florida continues to evolve 
and has now evolved into PTC Eight which is moving northward towards 
the Carolinas and remains of interest to NHC. Rough seas decrease 
slightly but remain in a rough to moderate state. 
WATCHES, WARNINGS and ADVISORIES: Small Craft Warning valid through 
to Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM FORECAST: Wednesday through Thursday
Upper ridging continues to build over us as anticyclonic flow sets 
up to our near south. A diffluent block to the southeast restricts 
the progression of an upper trough approaching from the continental 
US. At the surface, high pressure reestablishes to give rise to mostly 
settled conditions, with the chance of an isolated shower. All models 
show pressure rising towards 1018hPa. Marginal instability remains 
across the region in association with the mature frontal boundary 
becoming more diffuse as the low centers developing along the boundary 
move generally to the south. Winds gradually decrease towards moderate. 
Rough seas decrease towards moderate.
WATCHES, WARNINGS and ADVISORIES: A Small Craft Warning may be required 
due to rough seas.

TROPICAL UPDATE 
BWS is currently issuing TUBs for Potential Tropical Cylone Eight 
– not a threat to Bermuda AND Tropical Depression Gordon – not a 
threat at this time. Please see https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 
for the latest tropical outlook from the NHC.