NOWCAST (This Evening/Tonight)
Models timed the clearing of the extensive Sc cloud this morning 
(which reformed overnight), with a steady clearance and erosion from 
E to W. So after a cloudy morning, the afternoon became mostly sunny. 
Winds were generally light E’ly although they did fluctuate a little 
in direction. An earlier Ascat pass clearly showed the axis of a 
sfc ridge of high pressure just to the N of the Island. Temperatures 
once again peaked near 22C/low 70s F. Looking ahead to this evening 
it promises to remain just partly cloudy making for a very pleasant 
evening. However, overnight the models once again (and to some extent 
upwind satellite imagery) suggest an increase in the Sc cloud under 
the persistent subsidence inversion at near 5000ft (as highlighted 
in today’s observed 12Z skew-t data). This is partly due to inverted 
troughing approaching from the SE. Nevertheless, it promises to remain 
dry with little change in the wind regime. Seas will be slight to 
moderate and no watches/warnings/advisories are anticipated.

AVIATION: VFR conditions are expected to dominate the latest 18Z 
TAF period, despite increasing cloud later in period (not explicitly 
stated due to low confidence in it being a TAFable change). Winds 
will be mostly light from the ENE with some minor fluctuations at 
times. For current airfield information please visit:  http://www.weather.bm/Aviation 


SHORT TERM FORECAST (Wednesday-Thursday)
Whilst upper ridging dominates overhead with some amplification, 
upper troughing and a coincident cut off low linger towards the S/SE. 
At the sfc, high pressure ridging very much remains in charge with 
just a slight downtick in local pressure values. Mostly light E’ly 
flow tends to become variable before settling light SW’ly late Thursday 
night. Much of the period promises to be fine and dry with more strong 
spring sunshine. However, the aforementioned upper trough supports 
weak inverted sfc troughing passing by to the S along the S’n periphery 
of the ridge, and this is likely to send a few showers into the BDA 
area, more especially later Wednesday into Thursday. At the same 
time the airmass is progged to warm and become more humid, further 
contributing to the chance of showers. Seas will diminish mostly 
slight through the period, and at this stage no watches, warnings 
or advisories are expected.    

LONG TERM FORECAST (Friday-Saturday)
Upper troughing is now set to move by towards the N into the weekend, 
and this is likely to invigorate the sfc trough in our area with 
an uptick in shower activity. Having said that there is some model 
spread in the exact timing of the upper trough axis moving across 
the BDA area with the GFS typically faster than the other models. 
Shower activity is currently expected to be isolated during Friday, 
but there is now fairly strong model consensus on scattered showers 
developing into Saturday. Also, with increasing instability indices, 
the chance of thunder and a thunderstorm advisory will likely need 
to be considered, although this is not explicitly stated in the detailed 
forecasts yet given relatively low confidence. Winds will generally 
be light from the SW and in any sunnier spells it will likely become 
quite warm with highs near 24C/75F or so. Seas will remain mainly 
slight.