NOWCAST (Today/Tonight)
Overnight saw much drier air advecting across the area from the 
NW post an earlier cold front. The MIMIC total precipitable water 
imagery best illustrated the influx of dry air. This very dry air 
was largely above a subsidence inversion at around 6000ft, and under 
the inversion IR satellite imagery showed an abundance of cold-air 
Sc cloud tending to transition from closed cell to more open cell. 
As suggested by the NWP and confirmed by local observations, this 
cloud was thick enough in places to produce a few light showers albeit 
with negligible accumulations. An earlier Ascat pass showed marginal 
strong NW flow, but this has since eased to become light to moderate. 
With the strongest cold frontal passage of the season, temperatures 
fell to a rather chilly 14C/57F, while dew points bottomed out as 
low as 5C/41F. This translated to not only a cool airmass, but a 
dry one too with overnight humidity values sometimes in the 50s %. 
Looking ahead to today and tonight, and the light to moderate wind 
NW wind regime gradually veers towards the NE. At the same time, 
fairly extensive Sc cloud lingers in the area, although there will 
likely be some sunny breaks. Once again, some thicker patches could 
produce a light shower or two. Temperatures will remain subdued, 
peaking at around 18C/65F. With regards seas, these begin rough to 
near very rough, but continue to diminish through the day with the 
easing wind regime, becoming moderate by tonight. With that in mind, 
a small craft warning remains valid through this evening. No other 
watches, warnings or advisories are anticipated.

AVIATION: VFR conditions dominate the latest 06Z TAF, with light 
to moderate NW winds gradually veering NNE and easing light. For 
current airfield information please visit:  http://www.weather.bm/Aviation 


SHORT TERM FORECAST (Wednesday-Thursday)
The upper levels see a shortwave trough passing by on Wednesday 
to be replaced by modest upper ridging on Thursday. At the sfc, pressure 
continues to build locally, although an inverted trough does deepen 
into a low to the E, in concert with dynamic forcing from the aforementioned 
upper trough. Light to moderate NE winds gradually veer moderate 
E’ly, while this veering flow finally allows some decent WAA to return 
with air temperatures reaching the low 70s F/21-22C by Thursday. 
The veering flow will also help to break up the Sc cloud cover, helping 
more in the way of sunshine to develop. Aside from a few early light 
showers on Wednesday, it promises to be largely fine and dry. Seas 
will be slight to moderate and no watches/warnings/advisories are 
expected. 

LONG TERM FORECAST (Friday-Saturday)
The upper ridging overspreads the area on Friday in advance of upper 
troughing which moves through Saturday morning. Thereafter, more 
zonal flow returns. At the sfc, the main story is one of high pressure 
exiting E, allowing a cold front to sweep across the Island later 
Friday night/early Saturday morning. Although not as strong as yesterday’s 
cold front, it is still likely to bring some moderate to strong winds 
around it, possibly gusting towards gale force (not explicitly stated 
yet). QPFs also suggest 0.5” of rainfall with marginal instability 
indices conducive for at least isolated thunderstorms (again, not 
explicitly stated in the detailed forecasts yet). Aside from showers 
late Friday night into early Saturday in concert with the front, 
it promises to be largely fine and dry with further spells of sunshine. 
Temperatures will be more seasonal, perhaps a little above average 
especially on Friday ahead of the cold front. Seas look like at least 
building towards rough on Saturday, and a small craft warning is 
likely from Friday evening through much of Saturday. There is a small 
chance for a brief thunderstorm advisory in the warm/moist air ahead 
of the front.