NOWCAST (This Evening/Tonight)
Upper troughing anchored to the N brought cyclonic flow across the 
area today, with some weak trough features steered towards the Island 
in a moderate to occasionally strong NW flow (as illustrated by an 
earlier Ascat pass). Dew points continued to fall today down towards 
10C/50F as further CAA migrated over BDA (confirmed by winds backing 
with height in the 12Z skew-t data). Temperatures were a little below 
seasonal, peaking at around 22C/low 70s F. There were some sunny 
periods amongst rather widespread Cu/Sc cloud cover, but none was 
precipitating, at least not over the airport. Upper troughing and 
cyclonic flow continues tonight with more cold-air Sc cloud expected 
to overspread the area. With some nocturnal cloud-top cooling, there 
is the chance of a few mostly light showers. Winds will remain moderate 
to occasionally strong from the NW, while the CAA should begin to 
cut off. With the breeze continuing to blow and fairly extensive 
cloud cover, temperatures should not fall much lower than 18C/64F. 
Seas will remain marginal rough at 9-10ft. A small craft warning 
continues through this period. 

AVIATION: VFR conditions are expected through the latest 18F TAF 
period, while moderate NW winds will persist. This evening and overnight 
could see the odd light shower, briefly dampening the RWY, but not 
significant enough to be TAFable. For current airfield information 
please visit:  http://www.weather.bm/Aviation 

SHORT TERM FORECAST (Saturday-Sunday)
Generally cyclonic flow aloft remains in place over the weekend, 
although there are indications of brief transient upper ridging late 
Saturday into Sunday in between two trough axes. At the sfc, it remains 
breezy, even windy at times, as one low to the NE fades away on Saturday 
and another rather more significant one develops towards the NW (near 
Nova Scotia) during Sunday. Moderate to strong NW winds on Saturday 
back into the SW on Sunday whilst increasing strong, 20-30kt. The 
gradient increases to around 40 knots, suggesting possible gusts 
to this velocity, especially Sunday night. The backing wind regime 
helps some modest WAA to develop, allowing temperatures to recover 
to near average on Sunday. Seas remain moderate to rough before building 
rough to very rough Sunday night thanks to the strengthening wind 
regime. With regards weather, it looks rather cloud with a few blustery 
showers. Having said that, the showers should blow through fairly 
quickly and the QPFs support this with only a few millimetres of 
accumulated rainfall. A small craft warning remains in effect throughout 
and there is a small chance of a gale warning Sunday night.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Monday-Tuesday)
Monday sees quite a sharp upper trough pass to the N with a strong 
jet streak associated with it. This then migrates E allowing more 
relaxed but still cyclonic upper level flow to develop. After a windy 
start to Monday, 20-30kt with gusts to 40kt, winds are slated to 
veer W during the afternoon as a cold front moves across the area. 
They then further veer and ease on Tuesday as high pressure begins 
to nudge in from the W finally. Rough to very rough seas gradually 
diminish on Monday afternoon, likely eventually becoming mostly moderate 
by late Tuesday. As for weather, Monday is expected to begin dry 
and bright, but clouds and showers will soon gather as the aforementioned 
front moves in. The front itself looks fairly slim and fast moving 
so QPFs only suggest 5mm or so (around ¼ of an inch). Instability 
indices appear marginal at the moment, and lightning does not seem 
to be significant enough threat to incorporate into the detailed 
forecasts at this stage. It comes as no surprise that CAA develops 
behind the cold front, with temperatures once again falling below 
average on Tuesday. A small craft warning will likely be valid well 
into Tuesday before both seas and winds are below threshold. There 
is just a small chance of a thunderstorm advisory in concert with 
FROPA as well as a short-lived gale warning early Monday.

TROPICAL UPDATE
Please see https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 
for the latest tropical weather outlook from the NHC.